Dollar Makes a Critical Bearish Break but Risk Appetite Provides Little Follow Through

• Sentiment-based Momentum Giving Way to Judicious Fundamentals
• Monetary Policy Efforts Reveals a Building Divergence in Growth and Inflation Forecasts
The sharp rally that opened this week seemed to confirm that the next wave of a five-month bull trend was underway. However, this optimistic outlook was immediately deflated when momentum failed support the transition. What is the source of this hesitation? Fundamentals. Risk appetite and broad economic growth are two separate conditions. Generally, the former follows the latter; but when speculation is involved, inconsistencies often arise. Tracking sentiment since the beginning of the year, we have seen a clear evolution from a market that was attempting to establish stability after a financial crisis to one that was expanding as idle capital returned and yield forecasts rose. At this point, the reversal is unmistakable; but then again, this does not mean it is permanent. The more traditional asset classes have cleared their highs for the year; but the drive behind this rally has certainly eased. Equities, represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, have stalled over the past three days. In a similar fashion, the speculative-receptive commodities market has pulled back from its own highs without a clear level of resistance overhead. Alone, these asset classes would suggest risk appetite is health, just taking a breather. However, in the currency market, the conflict is more obvious. Looking beyond the 10-month high for the carry index itself, we have seen the US-dollar based majors stall immediately after mark-wide break against the greenback. And, ensuring that this is not just the dollar break from sentiment, the yen crosses have themselves yielded ceded to resistance.

Looking at the market’s as a whole, we are left to believe that a recovery is well under way. However, the developing trend behind investments is as assured as the revival of growth – that is to say, it is still highly uncertain. It is important to separate the influences of sentiment from the true foundation of economic expansion. Clearly, data over the past half year has supported the notion that the worst of the global recession is likely past and perhaps that positive growth is on the horizon. Coming from a record-breaking recession and ongoing financial crisis, this turn would naturally bolster confidence. A sense of stability is certainly enough to draw sidelined capital back into market-based assets (and thereby inflate their values); but to promote a true bull wave, turnover has to be catalyzed by the promise of rising returns and tangible growth has to produce wealth. The global economy has not yet graduated to this phase. Growth readings to this point have merely reported a moderation in the pace of the ongoing recession. Officials from many of the world’s largest economies see expansion at or after the turn of the year. Yet, even if this milestone is reached, growth from that point is forecasted to stagnate. To this point, government spending and stimulus has been the primary engine for improvement. Policy makers may be able to keep this scaffolding in place long enough for lending to fully thaw and business investment to revive; but the consumer is the key in this equation. Now the question becomes whether those countries with positive growth (China, Australia) will fold under the pressure.
isk Appetite Provides Little Follow Through