Currency Trading Summary 4th August 04 Aug, 2009

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the positive sentiment remained from Friday in Asia hurting the USD which was sold against nearly all everything except the Yen. Oil continued higher and the risk appetite hit new highs with the S& P breaking the key 1000 level. Helping sentiment was the July ISM Manufacturing ISM at 48.9 vs. 44.8 previously. Crude Oil Closed up $2.13 at $71.58. In US share markets, S&P ended +15 points (1.53%) at 1002, NASDAQ ended + points (0.84%) at 1978 and DOW JONES ended +17 points (0.2%) at 9171. Looking ahead, June Core PCE forecast at 0.2% vs. 0.1% previously.

The Euro (EUR) continued to charge onwards breaking past resistance at 1.4339 and rocketing to 1.44 before stabilizing and closing above the level. German Retail Sales surprised -1.4% in June but the stock market action kept the pair well supported. EUR/JPY traded to new year highs above 137 Yen. O verall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4205 and a high of 1.4447 before closing at 1.4405. Looking ahead, June PPI forecast at 0.2% vs. -0.2% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened everywhere as the USD/JPY continued bouncing up the June trend line and broke back above 95. AUD/JPY broke above 80 Yen and is a good gauge of the risk appetite of the market currently. EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY also traded at year highs. O verall the USDJPY traded with a low of 94.57 and a high of 95.45 before closing the day around 95.20 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was buoyed by the 16 month high UK PMI reading of 50.8 above 50 and a significant improvement from 47.4 previously. EUR/GBP broke below 0.8500 on the good news and then Cable already above 1.68 seized on the US data to break 1.69 and close in on the 1.700 bull target. O verall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6694 and a high of 1.6990 before closing the day at 1.6975 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its relentless track upwards breaking above 0.8400 and 80 Yen. The Pair found resistance on RBA rumors and profit taking ahead of the RBA and Retail sales data today. The Market is decidedly bullish on the pair but the trade is getting very crowded. O verall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8349 and a high of 0.8448 before closing the US session at 0.8420. Looking ahead, RBA meeting today expected to remain at 3.0% with an important statement accompanying. UPDATE June Retail Sales -1.4% m/m vs. 0.6% forecast m/m and 2.0% vs. 1.3% forecast Q2.
Gold (XAU) was not affected much by the USD moves with safe haven flows exiting the trade and inflation not viewed as an immediate issue. Overall trading with a low of USD$952 and high of USD$962 before ending the New York session at USD$956 an ounce.